CENTER OF BONNIE OVER BISCAYNE BAY...MOST OF THE WEATHER ALREADY

INLAND...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...25.4N 80.3W

ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA

ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM DESTIN

FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE

PONTCHARTRAIN...HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD

INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE

WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD

* DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE

PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER

INLET AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AT 1100 AM EDT...1500

UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS APPROACHING THE

SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3

WEST. BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30

KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BONNIE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE

SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF

MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BONNIE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE

NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. NO IMPORTANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST WHILE BONNIE IS

CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING

IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM

MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. AN ELEVATED AUTOMATIC

STATION AT FOWEY ROCKS OFF THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA JUST

REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH...74 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 52

MPH...85 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE

NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TODAY. TROPICAL STORM

FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN

FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE KEYS IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF

1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM

AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES

ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO

2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN

BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE

GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF

WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.