Thursday COVID update for Avoyelles: 34 new cases in 612 tests

"Double-digit increase" no longer means 10 to 12 new COVID cases in Avoyelles Parish's daily update from the state health department. On the heels of a 51-case day on Wednesday, the parish had 34 new cases in Thursday's report.

If there is any good news in the report it would be that there were more tests with fewer positive results. There were no additional deaths.

Thursday's update looked at 612 tests, giving an overall one-day positive rate of 5.5 percent -- considerably lower than the 9.6 percent on Wednesday. The parish's 16-month totals as of Thursday were 4,672 cases and 127 deaths.

Statewide there had been 536,366 cases and 10,968 deaths since March 2020. The state reported 1,620 hospitalized and 162 on ventilators -- up from 1,524 patients and 144 on ventilators in Wednesday's report.

The online COVID Act Now website upgraded Louisiana's risk status Thursday to "severe." It kept Avoyelles' risk level at "very high."

Three of the four major COVID indicators are better in Avoyelles than statewide.

For new-cases-per-day-per-100,000-population, the state rate is 77 while Avoyelles' is at 35.9. The parish's rate is determined by multiplying the actual number of new cases by 2.5 to convert the 40,000 population to 100,000. That figure looks at the totals for the past seven days. It is not known if the 51-case day was included, but the Act Now report came out before Thursday update from the state.

The infection rate in Avoyelles is only 1.1 -- indicating the virus is slowly spreading. Statewide the infection rate is 1.48, which indicates the number of active cases is spreading more rapidly than in the parish -- basically that for every two current cases, there are three new cases. Considering the virus remains active for two weeks, well, the math is disturbing. For example, if the infection rate is accurate, the 85 cases identified in the Wednesday and Thursday reports would be responsible for almost 100 new cases in the near future.

Act Now's estimate of the parish's COVID-positive rate is 4.2 percent -- slightly higher than the current official rate of 3.8 percent, but apparently includes rapid test results. that are omitted by the state. The statewide positive rate is 14.6 percent -- over 10 percent higher than Avoyelles' rate.

It is in the area of vaccinations where Avoyelles trails most of the other parishes. Act Now reports 32.8 percent of Avoyelles' residents have received at least one dose of a vaccine and 27.8 percent are fully vaccinated. That means 5 percent of people who took their first shot of the two-shot treatment is either waiting the number of weeks to take their second shot or have decided that one is enough. Statewide 41.5 percent have taken at least one dose and 36.7 percent are fully vaccinated -- a 4.8 percent "waiting list."

State and national health officials say the Delta variant is finding a foothold in communities with a low vaccination rate. In the beginning the target range was over 70 percent to be vaccinated. Latest reports indicate national officials are hoping those states with vaccination rates at or below 30 percent can at least get to 50 percent to slow the spread of the virus and prevent the possibility of another mutation that might be even worse than Delta.