PAR notes Alarming Amount of New Cases in Southwestern Louisiana

July 9, 2020

COVID-19 Snapshot: July 8, 2020 Update
Alarming Amount of New Cases in Southwestern Louisiana
1,888 New Cases | 20 Deaths

The Lafayette and Lake Charles regions show the largest increase of new cases per 100,000 residents over the last 14 days.

The Latest PAR report uses the number of new cases per 100,000 residents over a 14- day period, which is a method used by the state. By calculating the cases according to population in this way, the results from region to region are easier to compare to determine the severity of the outbreak.

14 Day Look-Back

PAR uses an average of new cases over a three-day period to smooth out irregularities that could be related to reporting inconsistencies. (LDH also uses multiple-day averaging.) Then, a statistically derived trendline – in the form of a straight line -- is fitted to the data to gauge whether cases are increasing, decreasing or have reached a plateau, according to the CDC definition for each.

COVID-19 Recoveries:

While manually tracking each recovery case is time-consuming and difficult, it is possible to estimate recoveries. If we assume those that test positive recover after 14 days, we can create an estimate of the number recovered.

The number of deaths is also subtracted from the recovery total. This does not exactly match LDH's estimation methodology which also takes hospitalizations into account.

The number of estimated patients still sick is now the highest it has ever been. However newer cases have a larger number of cases among younger age groups, which might account for fewer deaths than expected given the number of cases.
Once we have an estimate of recoveries, we can use that to get an estimate of the number of people still sick. If we subtract the number of recoveries from the total that tested positive, we can create an estimate of the number currently sick and presumably still contagious.