COVID rising: cases, deaths, tests, positive rates

As the COVID pandemic drags on, the number of infections and deaths are not the only numbers that are rising. The number of COVID tests reported for the pandemic in Avoyelles Parish is almost as much as the parish's population. The same is true for the state and nation.

This number may raise a few eyebrows, and possibly cast doubt on the accuracy of the numbers. However, state Office of Public Health Regional Administrator Dr. David Holcombe said the figures are reasonable, accurate and a necessary weapon in the war against the virus.

"Testing is good," Holcombe said. "The more tests that are done the more asymptomatic people with the disease that will be picked up."

The more COVID carriers that are identified and isolated from others, the fewer new cases there will be, he noted.

This "test and isolate" strategy, combined with the other "COVID protocols" that have been preached from the beginning of the pandemic, will make COVID vaccines more effective in blunting the spread of the disease by reducing the severity of the outbreak.

Widespread testing, protective masks, social distancing and avoiding indoor gatherings will still be the best way to protect against infection until an effective COVID vaccine is readily available to the general public.

If these ingredients in the anti-COVID recipe are implemented, followed and enforced the nation's projected number of COVID-related deaths in the next six months would be reduced from 160,000 to 60,000, healthcare officials said.

WEEKLY RESULTS

Avoyelles' weekly COVID results reflect the current condition around the state and most areas of the nation. There are double-digit increases in infections daily. The number of deaths is also increasing.

As we have noted before, the state classifies COVID cases identified by molecular tests as "confirmed" and those identified with rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) as "probable." The reason is because RDTs are not as reliable as the other tests that are conducted in a laboratory and take a day or more for results. RDT tesults can be reported within 30 minutes.

The parish's weekly positive rate dropped for the seven-day period of Dec. 3-12, from 6.9 percent to 6.3 percent. The state had adjusted the positive rate for Nov. 26-Dec. 2 from 7.5 to 6.9 percent.

Despite being less foolproof than the molecular tests, the rapid-result tests are being touted as a potent weapon against COVID.

THE MORE TESTS, THE BETTER

Holcombe said it is important to know that the number of tests being reported by the state health department includes every test that is taken -- except for multiple positive tests by an infected individual. The multiple positives are culled out and are not included in the positive results for a parish.

"It shouldn't be surprising that the number of tests is almost equal to the population," Holcombe said. "That doesn't mean everybody has taken a COVID test. For example, nursing home employees are required to take a COVID test every week. In Avoyelles Parish, this could be hundreds of tests a week.

If someone tests positive and then takes another test a week later in hopes of obtaining a negative test so they can go back to work, a second positive test will not be added to the parish's infection totals. That test is not counted in the totals.

In short, multiple negatives are counted; multiple positives are not.

For example, the newspaper is aware of at least one elected official who was among the first to submit to a nasal swab test when the mobile testing sites opened. He tested negative at that time. A few months into the pandemic, he came down with symptoms and was tested again. This time he was positive.

Then, as Holcombe noted, there are those whose job requires frequent tests to make sure the employee has not been infected since his last test.

Then there are those who have taken a test and then found out they had been in contact with a COVID carrier after taking that test.

Holcombe pointed out that the purpose of the widespread testing program is not to confirm someone who is sick has COVID -- although it does that. The main purpose is to find the many who have the disease with no symptoms but are unknowingly spreading the "new plague" to their family, friends and co-workers.

Other health care officials around the nation have called for more people to submit to voluntary testing, maybe as often as monthly, just as a precaution to protect their loved ones from possible contamination.

Holcombe said one of the most frustrating things about COVID-19 is the fact that it can be unnoticed in some and fatal in others -- and that a person with the mild version can pass it to another who could die from the disease.

FEAR OF 'INFLATED NUMBERS'

There have been allegations in the past that the number of positive test results was inflated by infected people who retested numerous times in hope of receiving a negative test result so they could go back to work.

A few months into the pandemic, Louisiana Health Department officials said they had culled that type of duplicate testing out of the numbers and it would not happen again.

Multiple retests by those still infected is the other possible reason for the high number of tests.

Holcombe said the state now tracks each person who tested positive and excludes any subsequent positive results for that individual.

This concern has been expressed throughout the nation and has been expressly addressed by national health care officials. The Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists stated on Aug. 5 that an individual who tests positive for COVID is considered a single case even if that person tests positive multiple times.

Looking at the testing numbers to date, over 93 percent of COVID tests administered in the state and 97 percent in Avoyelles have been molecular tests. The positivity rate since March for those tests has been 6.6 percent statewide and 6.2 percent in Avoyelles.

The RTD tests have only been in use for a few months. They are becoming more common. However, as noted earlier, because the tests are not as reliable as the more detailed molecular tests -- and seen more as an "early warning" defense -- they are separated from the molecular results.

Although RTD tests account for less than 7 percent of the state tests, they have a 12.7 percent positive rate. Avoyelles' RTD tests have been 13.6 percent positive.