30th storm, Iota, likely to follow Eta's path through Central America

It appears there will be no Thanksgiving break for the 2020 hurricane season. Tropical Storm Iota formed off the coast of South America Friday afternoon, in the same area that spawned the monster storm Eta. Like Eta, it is expected to hit Nicaragua, Honduras and Guatemala -- possibly as a Category 3 major hurricane. Landfall is expected Tuesday. Iota is the 30th named storm of the season, adding to its record. If it reaches hurricane strength it will be the 13th of the season, which is only two away from breaking 2005's record of 15 hurricanes out of its 28 storms.

Iota's strike will come at a time when the Central American countries are in crisis, with millions living in dangerous conditions caused by the storm and the likelihood of waterborne diseases and a COVID-19 resurgence in its aftermath. Eta hit Nicaragua as a Category 4 storm, tying Hurricane Laura as the season's strongest hurricane to make landfall.

Bunkie natives Mike and Dottie Clark, Baptist missionaries who operate the Casa Aleluya orphanage in the Guatemala highlands, reported only minor damage to the orphanage property from Eta. In his daily blog, Mike Clark noted Friday that the children at the orphanage had gathered and donated over 20 large garbage bags filled with clothes for residents of villages devastated by mudslides. He said more than 150 people died in Guatemala.

The warm waters and weak wind shear in that area of the Caribbean means Iota is likely to strengthen quickly. It went from a tropical depression to a tropical storm in only a few hours Friday. It is expected to reach hurricane status Sunday and become a Category 3 hurricane on Monday. It could still be a Category 3 storm, or possibly weaken to Category 1, when it hits Nicaragua in almost the same place Eta landed.

Like Eta, Iota is already being compared to 1998's Hurricane Mitch, which hit Honduras in late October of that year and killed more than 11,000 people in Central America before it left in early November.

Forecasters are unsure where Iota will go after it hits Nicaragua. Some say it is likely to move north toward Belize and re-enter the Caribbean, as Eta did. Some believe it may even enter southern Mexico or the Yucatan Peninsula and dissipate over land. Others believe it is more likely the storm will continue across the narrow band of land connecting the North and South American continents and enter the Pacific Ocean.

The one thing all weather watchers can agree on is that there's nothing anyone in the potential path of the storm can do but hope for the best and prepare for the worst.