Avoyelles upgraded to 'high risk' on state COVID map

The numbers from the state health department tell one side of the local COVID story. The calls and conversations from neighbors, friends and co-workers tells another.

Combined, they lead to a concern that Avoyelles may be on the verge of a "minor surge" in COVID. That concern is tempered by hope that a "surge" in vaccinations would be enough to keep the parish ahead of the virus and head off the arrival of a "fourth wave" that has hit some areas of the country.

Avoyelles' "risk" rating from the state health department rose to "high risk" after its official weekly positive rate jumped from 1 percent to 3.6 percent in Wednesday's report. Three of Avoyelles' neighbors -- LaSalle, Catahoula and Pointe Coupee, are now "highest risk" parishes. Southern neighbors Evangeline and St. Landry are "high risk" and Rapides maintained a "moderate risk" status. There is no rating given for Concordia on the map.

Avoyelles one-day snapshot of test results was relatively "good," with five new cases out of 276 tests. That was three positives out of 259 lab tests, which is approximately 1.6 percent. There were two positives among 17 rapid result tests, an 11.6 percent rate. The state does not include rapid result tests in the parish's official weekly positive rate. There were no additional deaths reported in Thursday's update.

As of Thursday, 4,133 Avoyelles Parish residents had been diagnosed with COVID-19 during the 13-month pandemic. That is more than 10 percent of the parish's estimated population. Of that number, 3,631 cases were "confirmed" by lab tests while 502 were diagnosed with rapid result tests and considered officially "probable" for the virus. There have been 123 deaths, with 114 confirmed as COVID-related and nine deemed "probable" for the disease.

The state's totals as of Thursday were 455,000 cases and 10,324 deaths.

The current percent of the population that has completed vaccination does not necessarily track the current risk status. As of Thursday the state noted 17.45 percent of Avoyelleans had completed their vaccinations. That was close to the Region VI total of 17.54 percent for the Central Louisiana parishes. The percent for Avoyelles' seven neighbors, high to low, was Pointe Coupee 26.65, Rapides 21.49, St. Landry 19.19, Catahoula 18.06, Evangeline 16.96, Concordia 14.55 and LaSalle 14.5.

The only OPH Region with a lower vaccination percentage than this one is Region 5, in Southwest Louisiana, at 17.24 percent. That 5-parish region has three rated "highest risk" -- Allen, Beauregard and Calcasieu. The other two parishes in that region, Jefferson Davis and Cameron, were not given a risk rating on Wednesday.