Friday COVID update indicates virus is declining in Avoyelles

Avoyelles Parish had a very good report in Friday's COVID update, with only 12 new cases out of 540 test results. The parish now has a pandemic total of 3,148. The parish's death toll went back up to 117.

National and state pandemic experts are reporting COVID-19 is being pushed back. Daily rates of new cases have plummeted since a peak in early January, about two weeks after Christmas. That good news seems to be holding true in Avoyelles as well.

Of the parish's 12 Friday cases, only three were in the 516 molecular lab test results that are used to determine the official weekly positive rate. That is a positive rate of only 0.58 percent. Nine new cases were diagnosed among the 24 rapid result tests, a 37.5 percent positive rate. The rapid result tests are more prone to false positives than the more detailed lab tests. The rapid result tests are usually given only to individuals with one or more symptom associated with COVID, which also increases the possibility of higher levels of positives among that group of tests.

There have been 3,148 "confirmed" (molecular) cases and 461 "probable" (rapid result) cases since the parish's first case on March 21. Of the 117 deaths, 111 were diagnosed by molecular tests. The other six are still categorized as "probable" for COVID.

The state totals on Friday were 418,585 cases (361,861/56,724) and 9,276 deaths (8,646/630).

Despite what can only be seen as good news in the almost year-long battle with the virus, health care officials are cautioning it is too early to declare victory. The possible impact of "Super Bowl parties" on Feb. 7 has not had time to fully come into play and the appearance of new variations of the virus may also result in another surge in cases, they warn.

But as of now, the roll out of the vaccines and the effect of "herd immunity" due to previous infection gives good reason for hope.