Small numbers may hide big problems in Tuesday COVID update for Avoyelles

Even when the COVID report looks like "good news" with relatively few new cases, there is usually more to the story than is evident on first glance.

Tuesday's COVID update for Avoyelles Parish showed 13 new cases and one additional death from COVID-19. Rather than a marked decline in new cases, as the number indicates, further examination of the report shows there were only 59 test results reviewed for this report. Taking the analysis one step further, that reflects an overall positive rate of 22 percent. That means had there been 300 tests, which is approximately the one-day total in most reports over the past few weeks, the parish would have been socked with 66 new cases. That is close the per-day rate over the previous seven days.

Those looking for some glimmer of hope in the report might note that 47 of the 59 tests were rapid result tests, which have a reputation for yielding some false positives. Unfortunately, in this report the tiny pool of 12 lab tests included seven of the positives -- a gobsmacking 58.3 percent positive rate. The quick result tests yielded six new cases, which is still a disturbing 12.7 percent positive rate.

Avoyelles' pandemic totals as of Tuesday were 5,604 cases and 136 deaths. The state totals were 631,837 cases and 11,706 deaths.

The state added 3,691 cases and 122 deaths to its totals on Tuesday. There were 3,012 COVID patients in hospitals with 441 on ventilators.