Latest analysis shows Avoyelles 'average' in its war on COVID

Avoyelles Parish is doing "about average" in its war on COVID, and actually showed some improvement in its numbers from the previous week, according to statistics in Monday reports.

Avoyelles Parish had seven new cases of COVID out of 180 test results in the report issued by the state health department on Monday. As of Monday, the parish's pandemic totals showed 4,233 cases -- 3,687 confirmed by lab tests and 546 deemed probable from rapid result tests -- and 123 deaths (115 "confirmed" and eight "probable.")

The three major indicators of success in a community's struggle with the virus are new cases per 100,000 per day, positive test results percentage and percent of population with at least one dose of vaccine.

There were four positives out of 131 lab tests, a three-report positive rate of just over 3 percent -- which is higher than the parish's official positive rate of 2.3 percent for a previous week. The state uses these numbers to determine a parish's official weekly positive rate.

There were three new cases in 49 rapid result tests, which reflects a 6 percent positive rate. These positives are not used to determine the official positive rate because of a possibility of false positives.

While seven cases in three days is only about 2.3 per day, statisticians multiply that number by 2.5 to give a number per 100,000 population with which to compare Avoyelles with 40,000 people and those communities with fewer or more. That would be a rate of about 5.8 cases per day per 100,000 population in the Monday report.

The online COVID Act Now organization's analysis of Avoyelles Parish's recent pandemic numbers has the parish rated "medium risk" -- the same as the state overall. That is an improvement over recent reports when it was deemed "high risk."
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Act Now's analysis of recent trends on Monday showed Avoyelles with a daily cases per 100,000 rate of 9.5, which is just over the state's 9.4 rate. The parish and state both have a positive rate of 3.7 percent. Where Avoyelles lags most of the state is in vaccinations. The parish's daily rate in last week's analysis was 11 new cases per 100,000 per day.

Act Now reports 26.3 percent of Avoyelleans have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine. That compares to 34 percent statewide.

The latest numbers from the state health department show 26.1 percent of Avoyelles' residents have received at least one dose of vaccine and 22.1 percent are fully vaccinated.

NO MASK NEEDED
For those who have complained about having to wear a mask in public, there is a new reason to get a COVID vaccination.

The CDC decided last Thursday that fully vaccinated Americans don't have to wear a mask, even inside. Of course, state and local governments -- and individual businesses -- can impose stricter rules if they believe they are needed.

Over a dozen states immediately lifted mask mandates for vaccinated individuals. Others, like New York, have decided to maintain public masks for the time being. Some, including Louisiana, had relaxed the restrictions before the CDC's announcement. A few never imposed a mask mandate.

The main issue against lifting mask mandates for just the vaccinated population is that it could lead to scenes out of old World War II movies where Gestapo agents stop people on the street and demand, "Papers please."

And there's always the "Or What?" response that has plagued the mandate since Day One. If someone cannot produce a vaccination record, will they be handed a mask and be monitored to ensure they keep it on?

No. The mask mandate has always relied on Americans' innate desire to obey the law and follow the advice and instructions of health experts.

It now seems to be an established fact -- at least until the next CDC revision -- that those who have been vaccinated are protected from contracting the disease and cannot pass on the disease if they happen to have picked it up but not become ill.

If everyone over the age of 12 was fully vaccinated, there would be no discussion on the issue. The pandemic would be over and the focus would be on preparing for "COVID-21."

But nationwide about 40 percent of Americans are still unvaccinated. Statewide the number is closer to 60 percent and in Avoyelles its over 70 percent.

Despite that large number of unprotected individuals, the mask mandate has been lifted. Masks are "encouraged but not required," as some local businesses note.

Masks will still be required in the courthouse elevator and the third floor, where the judges' offices and courtrooms are located. They are not required on the first and second floors.

PUTS UNVACCINATED AT RISK

Those who believe masks protect the unvaccinated are concerned that the move to lift mandates will result in the unvaccinated who were wearing masks and/or avoiding restaurants and crowded indoor locations abandoning those safe practices. This is likely to subject them to the virus and the virus will continue to spread through the unvaccinated segment of society.

President Joe Biden has called on local officials to make access to the vaccine even more convenient. That assumes those who have not been vaccinated have had problems with access. National polls indicate most of that 40 percent are unvaccinated by choice.

The Kaiser Family Foundation conducted a recent poll and found that 15 percent said they would not get a vaccination until they knew more about how it affected others. About 6 percent said they would only get a vaccination if it was required by an employer or other authority. Then there was 13 percent who said they would not get a shot under any circumstances.

Those three groups add up to 34 percent of the Kaiser respondents.

Mandate or not, health officials contend the best way to end the pandemic quickly is to convince the unvaccinated to get a shot.

CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky summed it up with this short statement: "If you are not vaccinated, you are not safe."