DayeTime: A short -- but important -- ballot
I’ve been a “political observer” for over 40 years and have dabbled in political prophecy from time to time. As such, here is my take on today's elections.
First let’s look at the two statewide elections.
The “other” Gov. Edwards (the "not Edwin" one) will win re-election by about a 10-percent spread -- 55-45. I could be wrong. It could be more like 60-40.
It will be closer in Avoyelles. I expect it to be about 52-48 -- maybe 51-49 -- in the incumbent’s favor.
In the secretary of state’s race, voters will give Kyle Ardoin a full term.
He served as disgraced SoS Tom Schedler’s chief assistant, served as interim secretary of state and then beat his current opponent in a special election and runoff 11 months ago.
This is a re-run runoff, and I see no reason to believe the results will be any different from the last one -- except that Ardoin’s margin of victory is likely to be larger.
Most voters don’t see the secretary of state as an elected leader, but as a public employee. They ask, "If he hasn’t done anything deserving to be fired over, why fire him?
Which brings us to the local election.
Sheriff Doug Anderson has been in office for several years now and is seeking re-election. He came in second in a three-man primary race. Not only did he come in second, he trailed the top vote-getter, David Dauzat, by over 10 points.
That is usually the kiss of death for an incumbent. Many incumbents in a similar situation concede defeat to avoid a runoff campaign they believe will end in defeat.
Anderson didn’t do that.
It’s like they used to say about the Louisiana lottery -- “You can’t win if you don’t play.”
In general, if you spot a team 10 points they will usually cover the spread. I suspect that will be the case this time, but it will boil down to who votes and who stays home.
Still, I'll go out on the limb and predict Anderson will close the gap but fall short, 54-46.
Which brings us to the “main event” everyone has been talking about for the past year -- the Justice Center tax.
Smart money says anti-tax sentiment will carry the day, 65-35.
On the other hand, those likely to vote for the tax are also those most likely to vote in an off-brand election -- those with college degrees, white collar jobs and several decades of “life experience.”
I think I’ll stick with “smart money” over “smart voters” on this one.
Tamerlane, a 14th Century Mongol conqueror, once said it is better to be on hand with 10 men than absent with 10,000.
The same holds true for elections.
If you haven't already, it's time to GO VOTE.