Avoyelles' 'joie de vivre' contributes to rising COVID numbers

Rising numbers of coronavirus cases in Avoyelles come as no surprise to Dr. David Holcombe, the Office of Public Health's regional administrator for central Louisiana. In fact, Holcombe said the almost daily increase will probably continue for the next few weeks, for a combination of reasons.

As of Saturday, there had been 184 positive tests in the parish. For all but one day in the past week or so, the number of cases has grown from two 10 cases a day.

"First, there was lag time for aggressive testing" in the parish, he said. This means many cases may not have been identified as quickly as they were in other areas that implemented testing programs sooner. "When Avoyelles' number of tests increased, the number of positive results also increased," he said.

Asked about concerns that the COVID count includes duplicate results from patients who had previously tested positive, Holcombe said the state Health Department tries to catch duplicate results and remove them from the cumulative total.

10 PERCENT POSITIVE

Statewide approximately 10 percent of those tested have tested positive for COVID-19. Many of those caught in the random tests have mild or no symptoms, but are still capable of spreading the disease, Holcombe said.

As of this Saturday, Avoyelles had conducted 3.180 tests, or approximately 7.5 percent of the parish's population -- assuming only one test per person, which parish officials have said is not the case. This past Monday the total number of tests was 2,515, indicating 665 tests performed last week.

"One remarkable finding in analyzing the test results is that 60 to 70 percent of those affected are African-American," Holcombe said. "That does not mean they are more susceptible to the disease, but probably is due to living conditions and other social conditions. They may be more likely to live in tighter housing areas with more people living close together. They may have jobs that they cannot afford to quit and that cannot be done from home, so they have to go to work every day and so their exposure risk is greater."

Holcombe also listed no-symptoms COVID carriers as a major cause of a "second peak" of COVID cases.

"There are a lot of asymptomatic carriers wandering around who do not know they have the disease," Holcombe said. "When we relaxed social distancing requirements, people started gathering again, whether at church or at crawfish boils or other places. It is unfortunate because the asymptomatic victims are spreading it around."

It shouldn't be a surprise that Avoyelles would show an increase in the wake of Phase 1 and Phase 2, Holcombe continued, noting the parish's tradition and culture contribute to spreading the disease."

Avoyelles is a very sociable place," he said. "They enjoy gathering together. Social distancing and wearing a mask do not come natural to Avoyelles Parish residents. Unfortunately, you pay a cost if you ignore the procedures in place to protect against infection."

Holcombe said the numbers are likely to increase, especially with a successful mobile testing program going on in the parish that has attracted good participation from the public.

For example, if there are 50 tests per day and the 10 percent positive trend holds true here, there should be five positive tests from that group when the results come back in three to five days later.

"We had prior warning of what to expect by watching New Orleans' experience early in the pandemic," Holcombe said. "We were able to put some procedures in place to help blunt the initial curve. Now we are hitting a second peak for the disease."

Holcombe said it is not known whether COVID-19 will be seasonal, like the flu, or a persistent threat."

The flu is seasonal," he said, "but even the flu, when it hit pandemic status with H1N1, continued on through."