Hurricane Elsa headed to Cuba, then on to Florida Gulf Coast

The first hurricane of 2021 set an early-formation record Friday, and communities along the storm-weary Louisiana Gulf Coast are hoping to "let it go" somewhere else.

Hurricane Elsa is expected to stay in the eastern half of the Gulf, but its "storm cone" as of Saturday morning extends almost to Pensacola. If it does as forecasters predict, it will be a Category 1 hurricane when it hits Cuba in the early morning hours of July 4. It is expected to spend Independence Day and most of the next day in what was once called the "Jewel of the Caribbean" before heading into the Gulf along Florida's west coast.

Elsa is currently projected to be a tropical storm with sustained winds of 58 mph when it makes landfall just north of Big Bend Wildlife Management Area Wednesday afternoon.

Forecasters will have a better idea of where the storm goes next after it leaves Cuba. The best result would be that Castro's island's highlands takes the punch out Elsa and it significantly weakens before it can threaten the U.S.

If it continues on its short trip to Florida, it shouldn't have an opportunity to regain hurricane strength. If it spins westward for a longer period over summer-heated Gulf waters, it could.

Only one possible path in what is sometimes called a "spaghetti chart" of where a storm might travel would send it to Louisiana.

The 2020 hurricane season was defined by not only setting a record of 30 named storms but of 27 of those storms setting early-formation records, including Edouard on July 6, 2020. Ed held the "E storm" record for just a year.

Stormcasters are hoping this hurricane season does not go "hyperactive" and set new records for the rest of the season as its predecessor did. Every storm beginning with Edouard was the earliest of its letter.

The U.S. was hit 11 times in 2020, with Louisiana having five of those.

The 2021 season was predicted to have 16 to 20 named storms with seven to 10 hurricanes. The U.S. was supposed to have only three to five landfalls. So far, tropical storms Danny hit South Carolina last week and Claudette passed over New Orleans the week before.

If Elsa hits Florida, as expected, it will be the third "weekly storm" in a row to strike the U.S.

The most famous Elsa, especially to parents of young children, is the princess from the animated movie Frozen, which features the songs "Let It Go." That song ends with the line, "the cold never bothered me anyway."

A little cold water in the Caribbean and Gulf would certainly bother this Elsa, but that's about as likely to happen as a talking snowman.