Average Tax Refunds Surge by Nearly 11%

The average federal tax refund is running nearly 11% higher than it was at the same point last year, according to early filing data released by the Internal Revenue Service.

Through Feb. 6, the average refund reached $2,290, compared with $2,065 during the same period in 2025, an increase of $225, or 10.9%. The IRS noted that the current figures do not yet include millions of refunds tied to the Earned Income Tax Credit and the Additional Child Tax Credit, which cannot be issued before mid-February.

The 2026 tax filing season opened Jan. 26, and the IRS had received approximately 22.3 million returns through Feb. 6. That figure represents about 14% of the 164 million returns the agency expects to process this year and is down about 5% from the same period last year.

More than 7.4 million refunds had been issued as of Feb. 6, compared with 8.1 million at the same point in 2025, a decrease of 8.1%.

It is common for the average refund to begin lower early in the filing season and rise as more returns are processed. The IRS cannot release refunds connected to the Earned Income Tax Credit or Additional Child Tax Credit until after Feb. 15, and more complex returns — often filed later in the season — can also affect the average.

In 2025, the average refund stood at $2,065 as of early February but rose to $3,453 by Feb. 21. The final average refund for 2025 was $3,167. In 2024, early February refunds averaged $1,741 before climbing to $3,213 later in the month, with a final yearly average of $3,138.

The IRS reports average refund amounts, not median figures, meaning the total can be influenced by especially large refunds. Officials say most taxpayers who file electronically should receive their refunds within 21 days.

The federal tax filing deadline this year is April 15.

Who could see larger refunds

Tax changes included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed in 2025, are projected to increase refunds for millions of taxpayers this year. An analysis cited by the House Ways and Means Committee suggests refunds could rise by as much as $1,000 per filer for some households.

Policy analysts note that increases will vary by income level and tax situation. Provisions such as a higher standard deduction, enhanced Child Tax Credit and a new senior deduction are expected to reduce tax bills for many households.

Some higher-income workers, including certain employees who earn tips or overtime, could see larger savings, while lower-income households, which often owe little or no federal income tax, may see more modest increases.

Principal Asset Management estimates that the average refund could rise by nearly $700 this year, potentially reaching about $3,800 per filer. The firm projects middle- and higher-income households may experience the largest gains.

Experts caution that early-season refund data can shift significantly as more returns are processed in the weeks leading up to Tax Day.